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Massimo Fuggetta Follow 700 689

CIO, Bayes Investments

Massimo Fuggetta @mfuggetta ·

19 May 2056696091291124208

Prior indifference is a distortion of Bayesian updating. While a correct update takes BR and increases or decreases it according to the likelihood of new evidence, Prior indifference triggers an inadvertent shift of the Base Rate to 50% before the update takes place. As a result,

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Massimo Fuggetta @mfuggetta ·

19 May 2056696449740443807

https://massimofuggetta.substack.com/p/rumsfelds-missing-quadrant

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Massimo Fuggetta @mfuggetta ·

19 May 2056697397560885682

.@mihaljevic I hope it is clearer now

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Massimo Fuggetta @mfuggetta ·

3 May 2051004970632130661

Here is the amazing paradox. Without the test, Bob would have reckoned he had a 0.1% probability of infection. With the test, after a positive result, that probability increased 19-fold: it went from 0.1% to 1.9%. But Bob thought it had gone all the way to 95%. He took the test

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Massimo Fuggetta @mfuggetta ·

3 May 2051005093416186198

https://massimofuggetta.substack.com/p/blinded-by-evidence

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Massimo Fuggetta @mfuggetta ·

3 May 2050999364663865753

Dependence on prior beliefs is an inconvenient obstacle in the pursuit of truth. Ideally, we would like evidence to speak for itself, swamp priors and give us certainty. But when evidence is not so obliging, ignoring priors, or pretending they do not exist, is not the right

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Massimo Fuggetta @mfuggetta ·

3 May 2050999814641402275

https://massimofuggetta.substack.com/p/laplaces-dictum-and-prior-indifference

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Massimo Fuggetta @mfuggetta ·

3 Apr 2040110890977013821

New Advances Bring the Era of Quantum Computers Closer Than Ever via @QuantaMagazine

New Advances Bring the Era of Quantum Computers Closer Than Ever | Quanta Magazine

Two research groups say they have significantly reduced the amount of qubits and time required to crack common online security technologies.

www.quantamagazine.org

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