Apr 072015

I put together a shortened version of the Blinded by Evidence paper:

Heuristic Biases and Knightian Uncertainty: The Prior Indifference Fallacy.

The shorter paper concentrates on a single point: seemingly unrelated heuristic biases – Representativeness, Anchoring, Availability and Hindsight – can be explained by a common underlying bias: the Prior Indifference Fallacy. Prior Indifference can in turn be seen as deriving from Knightian uncertainty. The main difference among the four biases is in the type of evidence used to update beliefs.

Comments welcome.

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